By José Carlos Palma *
The acceptance of Finland as a full member of NATO on April 4th presents a significant test or challenge for Russia’s post-war defense, depending on one’s viewpoint.
Negotiations commenced immediately after Finland’s accession to the North Atlantic Alliance. Sources indicate that Washington is pushing for the establishment of large-scale military infrastructure in the Scandinavian nation.
The reliability of this information remains to be seen with time.
However, the foremost challenge facing Russia is the F-35’s proximity to its border, as it is stationed just 124 miles (200 km) from the nearest Finnish border point to Russia’s second-largest city, Saint Petersburg.
This city holds immense military strategic value, particularly in terms of Russia’s naval offensive capabilities, as it is the headquarters and military command center of the entire Russian Navy.
Sources from agencies suggest that Washington intends to deploy a larger number of F-35 fighter jets in Finland than initially planned. While Finland has already ordered and is expecting 64 Lockheed F-35A Block 4 fighters, which are intended for the Finnish Air Force (FAF or FiAF) to replace its aging Boeing F/A-18 Hornet multirole fighters, it appears that even more F-35s may be deployed in the future. As a result, the Russian border with Finland will likely be subject to frequent monitoring by F-35 aircraft in the coming years.
Various experts suggest that the US is seeking more than just the deployment of F-35 fighter jets in Finland. With the possibility of new military infrastructure being funded by Washington or jointly with Helsinki, the Pentagon may also seek to send its equipment and deploy American forces to Finland. Due to Finland’s strategic geographic proximity to Russia, it could potentially serve as a location for US B61 nuclear bombs, much like Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey.
The final decision regarding the deployment of US military equipment and personnel in Finland rests with Helsinki, as negotiations are still ongoing and expected to conclude next year, according to online sources. While the ongoing war in Ukraine may not have a direct impact on this decision, it is considered a long-term and post-war strategy. Some experts believe that Helsinki is willing to grant the US significant freedom to operate within its territory in order to increase interoperability with the American military, as Finland aims to build a military that can work effectively alongside its US counterparts.
The deployment of F-35 fighter jets in Finland and their expected flights during patrols or joint Finnish-US-NATO exercises will lead to the heavy militarization of the existing border between Russia and Finland. As a result, Moscow will be compelled to construct a network of radars and air defense systems to counter this development. In light of Russia’s current military capabilities, the deployment of the Iskander ballistic missile systems, the S-400 Triumf air defense systems, and the latest S-500 Prometheus systems are logical steps taken by the Russian command.
The F-35’s ground attack and deep penetration capabilities will undoubtedly place pressure on Russian air defenses. Its stealth capabilities will pose a serious challenge to the S-400, which is known to detect stealth fighters on its radar. Moreover, following St. Petersburg, the region’s navies and air defense systems could be potential targets of the F-35, thereby making the fighter jet a critical target for Moscow.
In 2018, public records showed that Finland has a total of four air bases within its territory. The southern region houses the Tampere-Pirkkala Air Base, which serves as the primary operational hub for Finnish military flights. Meanwhile, the Kuopio Air Base in Central Finland is the primary base for some of the Boeing F/A-18 Hornet attack aircraft. Moving northwards, the Rovaniemi Air Base controls the border with Sweden and Norway and is also equipped with Hornets. Lastly, the Jyväskylä-Tikkakoski Air Base located in south-central Finland is mainly utilized for training Finnish pilots.
In order to ensure air defense along the border with Finland, Russia will need to rely on not only air defense systems and ballistic missiles, but also on its fleet of fighters. The 2nd Air Defense Division currently protects the border with Finland using the S-400, S-300, and Pantsir-S1M systems. Additionally, the 6th Air and Air Defense Forces Army has an array of fighter jets including Su-27, Su-30, Su-35, and Su-57, as well as bombers such as the Su-24 and interceptors like the MiG-31 stationed at their base.
At some point in the future, the Russian-Finnish border will be patrolled by two fifth-generation stealth fighters, the Finnish Air Force’s F-35 and the Russian Air Force’s Su-57. While the Su-57 is still in limited production, with only 10-11 units available, it has already seen more combat experience than the F-35 due to Ukraine’s testing of its beyond visual range and jamming capabilities.
However, the Su-57 lacks some of the technologies integrated into the F-35 or even the Chinese J-20.
The presence of the F-35 in close proximity to Russia will undoubtedly pose a greater threat, allowing for scanning and reconnaissance of Russian weapons systems. The extent of Helsinki’s cooperation with Washington, including the potential deployment of American troops and equipment in Finland, remains to be seen. The prospect of such developments has reignited discussions of a renewed Cold War.
* Expert in international relations, such as foreign policy, international trade, domestic security, international security, developing nations, and domestic security, intelligence, and military