By José Carlos Palma *
Russia’s increasing resort to desperate measures is evident in the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. This atrocity highlights the urgent need for the war in Ukraine to end, as it is clear that Russia cannot emerge victorious.
Continuing the conflict for another year may lead to the West losing the war, which would have significant consequences for the United States’ global leadership. Following the failed wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, the U.S.’s reputation has suffered, undermining its pursuit of global leadership.
Interestingly, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has inadvertently benefited the United States in several ways. Alongside economic gains such as increased sales of liquified natural gas and arms, NATO has been revived and strengthened, with the addition of Finland and soon Sweden.
Moreover, the Russian military’s actions in Ukraine have provided valuable insights into its capabilities and limitations. This knowledge benefits the West strategically, as it demystifies Russia’s military machine.
Ukraine’s battle-hardened military could also become a valuable addition to the Western alliance after a potential victory. The United States’ position in the alliance has been bolstered, and it is once again perceived as a defender of freedom, self-determination, and the rule of law.
However, despite Russia’s failure in its blitzkrieg approach, it still possesses the resources to continue fighting indefinitely. The United States and its allies seem to favor a war of attrition, providing weapons cautiously to avoid being drawn into the conflict.
If the war drags on and Ukraine is not allowed to achieve a decisive victory, the United States risks squandering the opportunities presented by Putin’s blunder and the benefits it currently enjoys.
The destruction of the Kakhovka dam serves as a warning of the calamities that prolonged conflict can cause. Ukraine’s ability to recover economically will be severely impaired, and the country may become a failed state, affecting not only its own population but also Europe as a whole.
Various scenarios are possible if the war continues, including the potential fall of Ukraine’s pro-Western government or Ukraine seeking alternative alliances, such as with China. NATO unity may also come under strain, with countries further away from the conflict advocating for freezing the conflict, while frontline nations like Poland and the Baltic states will be concerned about Ukraine’s future.
In conclusion, the United States must ensure that Ukraine liberates its occupied territories swiftly by providing the necessary modern weapons. Failure to do so may result in both Russia and the United States losing the war, which would have significant repercussions for U.S. global leadership.
* Expert in international relations, such as foreign policy, international trade, domestic security, international security, developing nations, domestic security, intelligence, political consultant, and military analysis.