By José Carlos Palma *

The Kuril Islands, a remote archipelago located in the Pacific Ocean, have long been a subject of contention between Russia and Japan. This territorial dispute, rooted in historical, geopolitical, and economic factors, has impeded the resolution of bilateral relations and hindered regional stability. In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of the Kuril Islands dispute, examining its historical background, key stakeholders’ perspectives, current developments, and potential paths towards a peaceful resolution.

Historical Background

The roots of the Kuril Islands dispute can be traced back to the end of World War II. As part of the post-war settlement, the Soviet Union seized control of the Kuril Islands, which had been under Japanese administration. This move led to the displacement of the indigenous Japanese population and sparked a long-standing territorial dispute between the two nations.

Strategic value

Strategically, control of the islands ensures Russia has year-round access to the Pacific Ocean for its Pacific Fleet of warships and submarines based in Vladivostok, as the strait between Kunashir and Iturup does not freeze over in winter.

Russia has military bases on the archipelago and has deployed missile systems on the islands.

The island’s current population is around 20,000 people.

After numerous meetings over the past few years between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin, they have launched various economic projects on the islands in areas such as the farming of fish and shellfish, wind-generated energy, and tourism, though Moscow says the investment is still meagre.

Since 2017, the two countries have also agreed on charter flights for Japanese former inhabitants to visit family graves there.

The islands are rich in hot springs and minerals and rare metals such as rhenium, which is used in the production of supersonic aircraft.

Treaties

Russian Empress Catherine the Great claimed sovereignty over the Kuril islands in 1786 after her government declared they were discovered by “Russian explorers” and therefore “undoubtedly must belong to Russia”.

In the first treaty between tsarist Russia and Japan in 1855, the frontier between the two countries was drawn just north of the four islands closest to Japan.

Twenty years later in 1875, a new treaty handed Tokyo the entire chain, in exchange for Russia gaining full control of the island of Sakhalin.

Key Stakeholders’ Perspectives:

1. Russia: Russia considers the Kuril Islands as an integral part of its territory, emphasizing their strategic importance, rich natural resources, and historical ties. The islands serve as a buffer zone for Russia’s eastern coastline and provide access to the Pacific Ocean. Moscow argues that the islands were legally acquired as a result of World War II and are thus non-negotiable.
2. Japan: Japan asserts its claim over the southernmost islands of the Kuril chain, known as the Northern Territories in Japan. Tokyo argues that these islands were not part of the post-war settlement and, therefore, should be returned to Japanese sovereignty. Japan sees the dispute as a hindrance to the normalization of bilateral relations and seeks a diplomatic resolution.

Current Developments

In recent years, there have been intermittent efforts to revive negotiations and find a mutually acceptable solution to the Kuril Islands dispute. However, progress has been slow, with both countries maintaining firm stances on their respective territorial claims. Occasional visits, cultural exchanges, and economic cooperation initiatives have been undertaken as confidence-building measures, but the core issue remains unresolved.

Potential Paths Toward Resolution

1. Diplomatic Negotiations: A diplomatic approach involving sustained negotiations and dialogue remains the most viable path toward a resolution. Both Russia and Japan need to engage in constructive dialogue, exploring creative solutions that could satisfy the interests and concerns of both sides. Confidence-building measures and compromises might pave the way for progress in this protracted dispute.
2. International Mediation: Given the complexity and sensitivity of the issue, international mediation could offer a neutral platform to facilitate negotiations. The involvement of a trusted third party, such as the United Nations or a regional organization, could help bridge the gap between Russia and Japan and provide a framework for reaching a mutually agreeable settlement.
3. Joint Economic Ventures: Exploring joint economic ventures in the disputed region could foster cooperation and build trust between Russia and Japan. By focusing on shared economic interests, such as resource extraction, tourism, or scientific research, both countries could gradually develop a mutually beneficial relationship while setting aside the territorial dispute for the time being.

Conclusion

The Kuril Islands dispute remains a challenging and sensitive issue for both Russia and Japan. Resolving this longstanding conflict requires a commitment to dialogue, flexibility, and a willingness to find common ground. While the path toward a resolution may be arduous, the potential benefits of peaceful coexistence and enhanced regional stability make it an endeavor worth pursuing. By understanding the historical context, recognizing each other’s perspectives, and embracing diplomatic solutions, Russia and Japan can work towards a mutually acceptable outcome and lay the foundation for a more harmonious future in the region.

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* Expert in international relations, such as foreign policy, international trade, domestic security, international security, developing nations, domestic security, intelligence,  political consultant, and military analysis.