The lack of transparency in the Chinese authoritarian system is truly astonishing, as nobody can definitively determine the actual cause of the Qin Gang’s downfall.

Following President Xi Jinping’s removal of Qin Gang from his position as State Councilor and Foreign Minister on Tuesday, Wang Yi now holds the most influential diplomatic role in China. With significant responsibilities across the party as Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission and in the government as State Councilor, Special Representative for India-China boundary talks, and Foreign Minister of the Middle Kingdom.

Since Qin’s dismissal, various speculations have arisen, including serious foreign policy disagreements with Wang Yi and rumors about his extramarital affairs. Some experts suggest that Qin’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy with the US may have led to his removal.

Having spoken to diplomats in Beijing, New Delhi, and the US, the Hindustan Times has discovered that nobody really knows the true reason behind President Xi Jinping’s decision to remove his once-trusted aide. It remains uncertain whether Qin will be rehabilitated or permanently sidelined.

What we do know is that Wang has replaced Qin, and he can be both diplomatic and straightforward, showing particular interest in India, Japan, and Asia. On the other hand, Qin had previously served as China’s ambassador to the US, staunchly defending Chinese aggressive policies in the Xinjiang region and against Taiwan.

Despite Qin’s absence from public engagements since early July, neither India nor any Western power has a concrete understanding of the political dynamics behind his removal. The secrecy surrounding Qin’s removal remains locked within the confines of the Chinese Communist Party, leaving only speculative theories circulating in the media.

This is quite different from democratic India, where the dismissal of a minister by the head of the government results in an information overload, with the minutest details appearing in the media and discussions dissected in news TV talk, shows the same night.

The fact is that until India or its allies can uncover real answers behind significant decisions made by the Chinese regime, the Quad powers will struggle to comprehend China’s actions, let alone counter the rise of Beijing. It is the opacity of the Chinese system that makes Beijing a powerful and unpredictable adversary.

Rather than relying on propaganda from the Chinese official media, India should invest resources in Beijing to gain a better understanding of the decision-making process within the Xi Jinping regime. Do we know who made the decision to invade India in 1962? Do we understand the political motivations behind PLA aggression in Pangong Tso in May 2020? Do we have insight into the internal Chinese developments prior to the intrusions on the Doklam plateau in 2017? Until India and its allies, can dispel the fog surrounding how decisions are made in China, President Xi Jinping will always catch the democratic world by surprise.

Source: With Agencies