West African defense chiefs have devised a contingency plan for potential military intervention if Niger’s coup is not reversed by the weekend, a leader from the regional bloc reported on Friday, following unsuccessful mediation efforts in a crisis that is causing concern among global powers.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has given Niger’s coup leaders until Sunday to relinquish power and release elected President Mohamed Bazoum.

The bloc has taken a firm stance against last week’s coup, which marks the seventh coup in West and Central Africa since 2020.

Due to its significant uranium and oil reserves and pivotal role in the fight against Islamist rebels in the Sahel region, Niger holds strategic importance for global players such as the United States, China, Europe, and Russia.

Under the intervention plan, the decision regarding the timing and location of the potential military strike will be made by the heads of state and will not be disclosed to the coup plotters, stated Abdel-Fatau Musah, ECOWAS commissioner for political affairs, peace, and security, at the conclusion of a three-day meeting in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja.

The 15-nation body has already imposed sanctions on Niger and sent a delegation to the capital, Niamey, on Thursday, seeking an “amicable resolution.” However, a source within the delegation revealed that they were met with resistance and did not stay for long.

“We want diplomacy to prevail, and it is essential that they clearly understand that we are offering them every opportunity to reverse their actions,” Musah emphasized.

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu instructed his government to be prepared for various options, including the deployment of military personnel, as conveyed in a letter read to the Senate on Friday. Senegal has also expressed its willingness to send troops.

DEVASTATING CONSEQUENCES

The junta has rejected any external interference and asserted its intention to resist.

The 59-year-old coup leader, Abdourahamane Tiani, had previously served as a battalion commander for ECOWAS forces during conflicts in Ivory Coast in 2003, affording him experience in dealing with intervention missions.

Support from fellow juntas in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso could potentially undermine the regional response. Both countries have pledged to come to Niger’s defense.

Detained at the presidential residence in Niamey, 63-year-old President Bazoum, elected in 2021, expressed that he is being held hostage and called for U.S. and international assistance.

In a Washington Post opinion piece, he warned of the potential devastating consequences if the coup succeeds, not only for Niger but for the entire region and the world, lending his support to ECOWAS’ economic and travel sanctions.

The junta cited persistent insecurity as its main justification for seizing power, but data on attacks shows that security had been improving before the coup, while violence has escalated since the juntas took control in Mali and Burkina Faso.

Similar to the leaders of those countries, Niger’s junta has revoked military cooperation agreements with former colonial power France.

France currently maintains between 1,000-1,500 troops in Niger, supported by drones and warplanes, to combat groups linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State. The United States, Germany, and Italy also have troops stationed in Niger.

Paris responded to the junta’s decision, stating that it only recognizes legitimate authorities, regardless of the statement made by “some Nigerien army men.”

RUSSIAN ANGLE

In protest against the coup, Western donors have reduced their support, despite Niger being one of the world’s poorest nations and heavily reliant on aid, which accounts for 40% of its budget. Additionally, regional countries have imposed economic sanctions, with residents reporting the impact.

President Bazoum expressed concern that the coup would plunge the nation into chaos, leading to soaring prices and potential exploitation by Islamists and Russia’s private mercenary group, Wagner.

He cautioned that an open invitation from the coup plotters and their regional allies could lead to the entire central Sahel region falling under Russian influence through the Wagner Group, whose brutal terrorism has been evident in Ukraine.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner with forces present in Mali and the Central African Republic, recently offered his forces to restore order in Niger.

On Friday, Russia reiterated its call for a return to constitutional rule.

Pro-Moscow propaganda has surfaced since Bazoum’s ouster, with some Nigerien coup supporters brandishing Russian flags while denouncing France and ECOWAS during a protest march on Thursday.

Source: With Agencies