Recent US intelligence assessments suggest that al Qaeda’s revival in Afghanistan and Pakistan is deemed “unlikely,” and the Taliban’s counterterrorism efforts have reportedly weakened the presence of the Islamic State in the region, according to two senior US officials.

These assessments, outlined during a briefing for reporters, present a positive outlook on the overall terrorist presence in Afghanistan, indicating a decline despite the US military’s withdrawal from the country in 2021.

Following the tumultuous withdrawal from Afghanistan and a shift of intelligence resources toward China and Russia, the Biden administration has emphasized its “over the horizon” capabilities for tracking terrorism threats originating from South Asia. However, some US officials have privately expressed concerns that this transition might hinder the tracking of ISIS threats, particularly in ungoverned areas of Syria and elsewhere.

ISIS-Khorasan, the Afghanistan affiliate of ISIS, has continued to launch attacks within Afghanistan, targeting high-profile locations. These attacks have resulted in civilian casualties and are intended to undermine the Taliban’s rule and erode public confidence in its ability to provide security.

Despite this ongoing threat from ISIS-K, one official stated that it differs fundamentally from the 9/11-era threat posed by al Qaeda. The officials noted that intelligence indicates increasing pressure on ISIS-K from the Taliban, with many key leaders fleeing the country in recent months.

In contrast, the officials described the al Qaeda threat as being at its lowest point in decades. They believe that al Qaeda’s revival in Afghanistan and Pakistan is unlikely, partly due to the absence of US troops, which served as a “proving ground” for training fighters and operatives. Additionally, the killing of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone strike in August 2022 left the group without significant leadership talent and strategic guidance.

It’s worth noting that these US assessments diverge from a report released by the United Nations’ Sanctions Monitoring Team in June, which suggested that al Qaeda was in a reorganization phase and establishing new training facilities in certain Afghan provinces. The UN report also expressed concerns about ISIS-K’s potential to develop external operational capabilities and project threats regionally and beyond.

In response to the contrast between the US and UN assessments, one official labeled the UN report as “wildly out of whack” with the intelligence gathered by the US and its partners, suggesting that efforts had been made to engage with the authors of the report to better understand their perspective.

Source: with agencies