By Daniel Robinson *
January 27, 2024
Recent analyses suggest that China would need a staggering 1.2 million troops to successfully invade Taiwan, a strategic endeavor that could potentially lead to catastrophic consequences. As geopolitical tensions loom, a closer examination of the logistical and tactical challenges reveals that such an invasion could indeed be a perilous venture for China.
Taiwan, with a potential defensive force of 450,000 troops, not counting potential civilian militias, presents a formidable obstacle. Employing the conventional three-to-one ratio of attackers to defenders, China would require an unprecedented force of over 1.2 million troops to mount a successful invasion. This numerical demand surpasses the active force of just over two million in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), leaving limited room for reserves.
Comparisons to historical amphibious invasions, such as the U.S.-led Inchon operation during the Korean War, underscore the monumental scale of the task. While the logistics of invading Taiwan present immense challenges, the defensive capabilities of the island, including large missile stockpiles, thousands of tanks, and a dense network of fortified positions, further complicate the scenario.
Taiwan’s rugged terrain, marked by mountainous jungles, could serve as a formidable last stand for resistance, akin to the challenges faced by Japan during the Second World War. The Japanese military’s encounter with guerilla activity after gaining control of Taiwan as part of the Treaty of Shimonoseki serves as a historical precedent for the difficulty in controlling the island’s interior.
Recent global events, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, may have prompted contemplation of a similar move by China. However, the unforeseen international backlash and substantial casualties incurred by Russia could dissuade China from such an undertaking. The potential operational cost, including ship losses and casualties, raises questions about the feasibility of a successful invasion.
Experts suggest that while China could technically launch an invasion, the level of operational cost, particularly in the face of Taiwan’s robust defenses and potential U.S. intervention, would likely result in a protracted and bloody conflict. The readiness of Taiwan’s military, honed by decades of preparation, adds another layer of complexity, turning the prospect of an invasion into a military planner’s nightmare.
Moreover, studies from the U.S. Naval War College and the Atlantic Council emphasize China’s lack of essential equipment and skills for a successful invasion. Taiwan’s vast defensive capabilities, combined with its challenging geography and multiple islands, create a scenario where the cost of invasion may far exceed any perceived benefits.
As geopolitical tensions persist, the intricate web of challenges associated with a potential invasion of Taiwan by China suggests that a more diplomatic approach may be prudent. The risks and uncertainties surrounding such an ambitious military endeavor could have ramifications far beyond regional dynamics, potentially leading to undesirable outcomes for all parties involved.
* Daniel Robinson, a highly esteemed collaborator at Smartencyclopedia, specializes in the critical domains of national security, government affairs, country intelligence, military strategy, and intelligence operations. With an unwavering commitment to these fields, Daniel is a crucial asset to our platform.