By The Smartencyclopedia Staff & Agencies
In a groundbreaking poll conducted by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, predictions indicate a historic setback for the Conservative Party in the upcoming general election. The survey, comprising over 18,000 respondents, suggests that prominent Cabinet ministers, including Jeremy Hunt, Gillian Keegan, and Grant Shapps, could lose their seats. If these projections materialize, it would mark the worst Conservative wipeout in history.
According to the poll, Chancellor Rishi Sunak is anticipated to be left with only 80 MPs after the general election, highlighting a significant decline for the Tories. In total, 18 Cabinet ministers are predicted to lose their seats, further amplifying the potential impact of this electoral challenge.
The list of senior Tories facing potential defeats includes Penny Mordaunt, Mel Stride, Claire Coutinho, Victoria Prentis, John Glen, Johnny Mercer, Simon Hart, and more. The polling firms employed the multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) method, providing a comprehensive estimation of public opinion at a local level.
The projected results show Labour securing 452 seats at the next general election, potentially surpassing its 1997 victory and constituting a record landslide. In stark contrast, the Conservatives are predicted to lose a substantial 285 seats, equivalent to three-quarters of their 2019 election wins.
The polling results suggest that Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats would perform similarly, with 10% and 11% of the vote, respectively. However, this outcome would leave Nigel Farage’s Reform UK without any seats, while the Lib Dems would secure 53 seats.
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, expressed insights into the findings, noting increased public disenchantment with the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak. He compared the sentiment to that of 1997 under John Major, emphasizing the potential for a seismic impact on British politics.
The poll, conducted between January 24 and February 12, predates the recent suspension of two Labour candidates over alleged anti-Israel comments, introducing an element of uncertainty into the political landscape. Analysts suggest that the recent crisis facing Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer could impact the party’s electoral prospects, coinciding with Labour’s revision of promises related to green investments. A separate Savanta poll indicates a narrowing lead for Starmer over Sunak, possibly influenced by Labour’s adjustment of its spending targets on green projects.