By The Smartencyclopedia Staff  & Agencies

In a concerning development, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has warned that Moscow is laying the groundwork for a potential military operation in Moldova, echoing patterns observed before Russia invaded Ukraine. The think tank suggests that the Kremlin is employing similar rhetoric to that used before previous military interventions.

The focus of the alleged preparations is centered around the creation of “informational conditions” necessary for a “hybrid operation” in Moldova, a country in Eastern Europe with historical ties to Russia.

One of the flashpoints is the pro-Russian Transnistria region, which seceded from Moldova before the collapse of Soviet rule and engaged in a brief war against the newly independent state located between Ukraine and Romania. A recent dispute has arisen over Moldova’s imposition of customs duties on exports and imports from Transnistria, as part of its efforts to join the European Union. Brussels, in response, indicated its intention to open negotiation talks with Chisinau last December.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, on Wednesday, made several false allegations against Moldova, including the baseless claim that the US and EU control the country’s government. Lavrov also asserted that there are 200,000 Russian citizens in Transnistria, expressing concern over their fate and vowing to prevent them from becoming victims of what he called “another Western adventure.”

The ISW report states, “The Kremlin is conducting information operations against Moldova very similar to those that the Kremlin used before it invaded Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, likely to set conditions to justify possible future Russian escalation against Moldova.”

While the timing of a potential Russian operation remains uncertain, the think tank suggests that Moscow is actively shaping informational conditions to make such a move possible shortly. Lavrov’s statements imply that the Kremlin is orchestrating broader efforts in the information space.

Last December, Michel Hofman, the head of the army in Belgium, warned about the possibility of a Russian attack on Moldova. He urged Europe to urgently prepare and make it clear that it can defend itself, emphasizing the need to counterattack if necessary, and expressing concerns about potential actions in Moldova or the Baltic states.

Moldova’s President, Maia Sandu, labeled Russia a threat to the country’s national security last year. A government strategy document unveiled during her tenure identified Russia and its proxies as “the most dangerous and persistent source of threat,” with the potential to severely impact Moldova’s statehood, democracy, and prosperity if not countered. The situation is being closely monitored by the international community as tensions continue to escalate in the region.