By Daniel Robinson*

The prospect of a country launching all its missiles simultaneously, especially from a submarine, raises a series of technical, logistical, and strategic questions. This scenario, while theoretically interesting, presents a multitude of challenges and dire consequences that render it impractical and potentially catastrophic. Let’s delve into why such an action would be unfeasible and what would likely happen if an attempt were made.

Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs): Technical Constraints

Submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) are a critical component of the nuclear triad, providing a stealthy and survivable second-strike capability. However, their design and launch protocols are meticulously crafted to avoid the very scenario of simultaneous launches.

1. Missile Tubes and Spacing: On most ballistic missile submarines, missile tubes are spaced about a meter apart. This proximity is manageable under standard launch procedures but would become a severe hazard if all missiles were ejected simultaneously. For instance, Ohio-class submarines have 24 missile tubes, each about 13.6 meters long and 2 meters in diameter, with each missile weighing approximately 69,000 kg.
2. Launch Sequence and Hydrodynamic Effects: Submarine-launched missiles are typically ejected one at a time, allowing the submarine’s systems to manage the hydrodynamic effects of each launch. If multiple missiles were launched simultaneously, the rush of water between the tubes would create low-pressure areas due to Bernoulli’s principle, causing the missiles to be sucked towards each other. Additionally, random flow turbulence could lead to unpredictable paths and collisions between the missiles.
3. Impact and Damage: The resulting collisions between these 69,000 kg missiles would likely cause significant damage. The lightweight metal exteriors could be dented or torn, the solid rocket fuel could crack, and the missiles could start to tumble underwater. This would not only jeopardize the structural integrity of the missiles but also their guidance and propulsion systems.

Consequences of Simultaneous Launches

1. Mid-Launch Collisions and Explosions: As missiles emerge from the water, those that ignite their rocket motors at an angle could direct their exhaust onto other missiles, causing further damage. This could lead to premature detonation of the rocket fuel, resulting in explosions that would likely destroy nearby missiles and the submarine itself.
2. Guidance and Aerodynamics: Ballistic missiles rely on precise guidance during the boost phase to reach their targets. Damaged, dented, or aerodynamically compromised missiles would deviate from their intended paths, reducing the chances of any missile reaching its target to almost zero.
3. Submarine Stability: The sudden ejection of 24 missiles would lead to an abrupt reduction in weight (approximately 1,656 metric tonnes). Submarines are designed to handle weight changes gradually; such a massive and rapid change would cause a severe depth excursion. The submarine could surface uncontrollably amidst the chaos of burning and exploding missiles, further endangering its crew and structure.

Strategic Implications

1. Operational Doctrine: The strategic doctrine behind SLBMs is based on stealth and survivability. The simultaneous launch of all missiles contradicts this principle, exposing the submarine’s position and eliminating its second-strike capability.
2. Nuclear Escalation: Even if a fraction of the missiles managed to launch successfully, the act of deploying a full arsenal would likely be perceived as a maximal escalation, prompting a full-scale retaliatory strike from adversaries. This could lead to a catastrophic nuclear exchange with devastating global consequences.
3. Technological and Tactical Realities: Modern military strategy and technology do not support such simultaneous launches due to the risks and inefficiencies involved. Military planners and engineers have designed systems and protocols to ensure that each missile launch is controlled and optimized for success, rather than risking total failure through simultaneous launches.

Conclusion

The idea of launching all missiles simultaneously from a submarine is fraught with insurmountable technical challenges and grave strategic risks. The physical interactions between missiles, the potential for mid-launch collisions, and the destabilizing effects on the submarine itself make such an operation virtually impossible and extraordinarily dangerous. Moreover, the strategic logic behind SLBMs as a deterrent would be undermined by such an action, leading to a heightened risk of catastrophic nuclear war.

In essence, the meticulously planned and controlled launch sequences currently in place are designed to ensure the highest probability of mission success while maintaining the strategic balance of power. Simultaneous missile launches, particularly from submarines, remain an impractical and hazardous scenario that military doctrines wisely avoid.

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*Daniel Robinson, a highly esteemed collaborator at Smartencyclopedia, specializes in the critical domains of national security, government affairs, country intelligence, military strategy, and intelligence operations. With an unwavering commitment to these fields, Daniel is a crucial asset to our platform.