Consequences of U.S. Forces Leaving Iraq and Syria: Strategic Implications and Future Planning

Dependence on Local Allies

Operation Inherent Resolve hinges on a strategy of working “by, with, and through” local allies, notably the Kurdish Peshmerga and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The small U.S. troop presence in Syria necessitates operational support, including engineering, aviation, and logistics, to be conducted from bases in Iraq. Ongoing discussions with Baghdad through the Higher Military Commission are exploring the future of OIR, including the potential reduction or removal of U.S. forces from Iraq. This scenario would require increased cooperation among local allies, yet political tensions between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) complicate such efforts.

The Necessity for Comprehensive Planning

U.S. policymakers need to address an eventual withdrawal in two critical ways. First, they should develop a strategic plan for the post-OIR landscape, particularly if a withdrawal happens sooner than anticipated. This plan should account for the wide-ranging ramifications on counterterrorism, regional politics, and security dynamics. Contingency plans are essential to minimize the impact on ISIS’s operational capabilities and U.S. strategic interests in the Middle East. Second, policymakers must assess how the political dynamics among regional allies will influence the continued success of OIR if U.S. troops are withdrawn or reduced in Iraq while maintaining support for the SDF.

Internal and External Pressures

The U.S. faces growing internal and external pressures to reassess its military presence in Iraq and Syria. Domestically, there is a rising inclination toward isolationist policies. The potential of a second Trump administration brings additional scrutiny to OIR. President Trump, who previously withdrew U.S. troops from strategic areas in Northern Syria in 2019, continues to question the necessity of maintaining U.S. troops in the region, despite the ongoing threat posed by ISIS.

The Biden administration has also considered the potential ramifications of redrawing Syria’s battle lines, assessing how a U.S. withdrawal would impact the SDF-Assad regime dynamics. In light of the backlash from the 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, significant withdrawals or drawdowns regarding OIR are unlikely before the elections. However, unforeseen developments in the Middle East could prompt a reevaluation of this stance.

Pressure from Iraq and Iran

In Iraq, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is under pressure from Iran-aligned political figures and militia groups to negotiate the end of the U.S. military presence. U.S. troops play a crucial role in supporting the Iraqi Security Forces, Kurdish Peshmerga, and the Counter Terrorism Service, along with providing substantial financial aid through OIR. Despite this, Sudani has initiated steps toward reducing the U.S. military role in Iraq.

One notable step is the formation of the U.S.-Iraqi Higher Military Commission to discuss transitioning to a bilateral security partnership. The commission aims to establish a timetable for the gradual reduction of U.S. advisors in Iraq. A joint statement following Sudani’s meeting with President Biden reaffirmed their commitment to reviewing the necessary factors for OIR’s evolution.

Threats and Potential Escalation

The operational environment in the Middle East could accelerate the U.S. withdrawal. Iran-aligned militias in Iraq have conducted numerous attacks on U.S. and coalition troops. These militias, directed by Iran, paused their attacks after a deadly incident in Jordan but may resume if tensions escalate, such as an Israeli confrontation with Hezbollah. This could lead to a cycle of retaliatory attacks, increasing calls for the removal of U.S. forces from the region.

A U.S. withdrawal would have significant implications for Iraq and OIR. The U.S. leads in both troop presence and financial contributions. Civilian missions from NATO and the EU, relying on U.S. security, could also be affected. It is unlikely that other member states could fill the gaps left by a U.S. withdrawal.

The Future of the SDF

The future of the SDF is a critical concern in the event of a U.S. withdrawal. OIR missions in Iraq and Syria, though distinct, are interconnected. Support for the SDF depends on U.S. military activities in Iraq, including intelligence and logistical support. The Syrian Logistics Cell, operating from Erbil, is essential for anti-ISIS activities in Syria. A U.S. withdrawal from Iraq would complicate sustaining counterterrorism support for the SDF.

Maintaining support for the SDF is crucial to prevent an ISIS resurgence. Any disruption in logistical support could be exploited by ISIS, underscoring the need for comprehensive planning by U.S. policymakers to consider the broader implications of changes to OIR in Iraq on operations in Syria.

SDC-KRG Tensions

Tensions between the KRG’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the SDC complicate cooperation. These tensions arise from their relationships with Türkiye and differing political aspirations. The SDC’s ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), considered a terrorist organization by Türkiye, contrast with the KDP’s efforts to maintain positive relations with Türkiye.

The KDP and SDC remain at odds, complicating efforts to improve cooperation. As major U.S. allies in Iraq and Syria, their relationship is a critical factor for U.S. policymakers to consider when planning for OIR’s future.

Policy Recommendations

While immediate changes may not result from the U.S.-Iraqi Higher Military Commission, U.S. policymakers must start considering withdrawal scenarios and develop contingency plans. Scenario-building with the U.S. intelligence and defense communities and regional partners is essential to ensure that ISIS does not exploit a power vacuum.

Policymakers must also consider the impact of regional political dynamics on contingency plans. Increased collaboration and communication between the SDC and the KRG are crucial for stabilizing Iraq and Syria in the event of a U.S. drawdown or withdrawal. This collaboration is one of many factors that must be considered to ensure a stable transition and continued counterterrorism efforts in the region.

*Richard Evans offers insights into strategic intelligence and regional security dynamics, working with government agencies and international bodies.

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