By Smartencyclopedia & Agencies
Kursk, Russia – August 12, 2024 – Russia’s reaction to the unexpected Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region is exhibiting significant vulnerabilities and organizational disarray, according to a recent analysis from the U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The think tank’s latest report highlights Moscow’s difficulties in managing the response to the Ukrainian offensive, which began with a surprise cross-border push from Ukraine’s Sumy region on Tuesday.
The ISW’s analysis reveals that Russia’s military strategy in Kursk is marred by a chaotic deployment of forces. Moscow has relied heavily on conscripts, units diverted from less intense fronts, and even troops from its northern group of forces—traditionally stationed near the Kharkiv region, which saw recent Russian offensives. The deployment of these forces to Kursk is reportedly exacerbating the disorganization within the Russian response.
The acting governor of Kursk, Alexei Smirnov, declared a state of emergency on Wednesday, prompting the evacuation of over 76,000 residents by Saturday. In addition, Moscow has launched a “counter-terrorism operation” in the region, led by the Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor to the Soviet KGB. This operation involves coordination between the FSB, the Russian army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the National Guard, with reports indicating the participation of Chechen special forces.
The ISW notes that the complex command structure involving the FSB and various military and security agencies could degrade the effectiveness of Russia’s response. The potential for friction and bureaucratic obstacles between these entities might further complicate efforts to counter the Ukrainian incursion. The think tank also suggests that Moscow’s decision to avoid reallocating key forces from critical fronts in Donetsk may further strain command chains in Kursk.
“The current decisions by Russian military leadership present vulnerabilities and opportunities that Ukrainian forces are likely to exploit,” the ISW report states. Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for further comment.
On the Ukrainian side, President Volodymyr Zelensky has for the first time openly referenced the Kursk incursion. In a video address, Zelensky discussed his conversations with Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi about Ukraine’s strategy to “push the war out into the aggressor’s territory.”
As the situation evolves, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Sunday morning that its air defenses had intercepted 14 drones and four Tochka-U tactical missiles over the Kursk region. However, the impact of the ongoing conflict has already been felt in Kursk itself, where a downed Ukrainian missile struck a multistory building, injuring 13 people. Health Minister Mikhail Murashko confirmed that 69 individuals injured in shelling are currently receiving treatment in local hospitals.
The unfolding situation in Kursk continues to develop, with significant implications for both Russian and Ukrainian military strategies.