By Smartencyclopedia & Agencies

In a dramatic headline this morning, Kommersant captured the intensity of the moment: “Vladimir Putin Draws His Red Line.”

The key question now is whether the West will cross it, and how Russia might respond if it does.

During a speech in St. Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a stark warning to the West: do not allow Ukraine to use your long-range missiles to strike Russian territory. If Ukraine were to do so, Putin declared, Moscow would interpret this as “direct participation” of NATO countries in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

“It would substantially change the very essence, the nature of the conflict,” the Kremlin leader emphasized. “This will mean that NATO countries, the USA, and European states, are fighting with Russia.”

Putin went further, claiming that Ukraine would require intelligence from Western satellites to carry out such missile strikes and that only NATO servicemen would have the capability to “input flight missions into these missile systems.”

Russia’s Red Lines: A Recurrent Theme

This isn’t the first time Russia has drawn red lines, nor is it the first time they’ve been crossed.

On February 24, 2022, when announcing his “special military operation”—the full-scale invasion of Ukraine—Putin warned that any external interference would provoke an immediate and unprecedented Russian response. At the time, many saw this as nuclear saber-rattling. Since then, Western countries have provided Ukraine with tanks, advanced missile systems, and even F-16 fighter jets, disregarding what were once considered red lines.

Earlier this year, Russia accused Ukraine of using American ATACMS long-range missiles to strike Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Russian officials and state media have repeatedly claimed that the West is already engaged in a war against Russia, even though Russia initiated the conflict by invading Ukraine.

However, President Putin’s latest remarks underscore his belief that allowing Ukraine to target Russian territory with Western missile systems would escalate the conflict significantly.

Putin’s Response: Unclear but Broad

Despite Putin’s strong rhetoric, he did not specify how Moscow would react to Western long-range missiles being used against Russian targets. “We will take corresponding decisions based on the threats to us that will be created,” he stated.

Some clues to Russia’s potential response can be found in remarks Putin made in June. When asked how Russia would react if Ukraine used European-supplied weapons to strike Russian territory, Putin responded: “We will improve our air defense systems. We will destroy their missiles.” He also hinted at the possibility of supplying Russian weapons to adversaries of the West, potentially allowing them to strike sensitive Western targets.

Earlier this month, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Ryabkov, announced that Russia is considering revising its nuclear doctrine in response to the escalation by Western adversaries. The revised doctrine could clarify under what circumstances Moscow might use nuclear weapons.

Diplomatic Tensions Rising

The escalating rhetoric comes as diplomatic tensions flare between Russia and the UK. On Friday, Russia revoked the accreditation of six British diplomats, accusing them of engaging in “subversive activities” and posing a threat to Russian security.

Meanwhile, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is in Washington for talks with U.S. President Joe Biden. Ukraine and long-range missiles are expected to be a major topic of discussion. “Russia started this conflict. Russia illegally invaded Ukraine,” Sir Keir commented en route to Washington. “Russia can end this conflict straight away.”

The West’s Dilemma

The West now faces a critical decision. Should it escalate the conflict by allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied long-range missiles to strike Russian territory, or should it maintain current restrictions to avoid the risk of further escalation?

As Putin’s red lines grow clearer, the consequences of crossing them remain uncertain. However, the potential for a dramatic shift like the war is looming large.