Experts warn of a possible increase in arson attacks, online disinformation, and targeted assassinations.
The UK is likely to become a primary target for Russia’s escalating acts of sabotage and disinformation if restrictions on the use of British-made Storm Shadow missiles are lifted, military experts have warned. The potential increase in attacks follows remarks by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said that such a move would mean NATO countries, including the US and UK, are at war with Russia.
On Friday, US President Joe Biden and UK Labour leader Keir Starmer are set to meet to discuss Ukraine’s use of long-range missile systems like the British Storm Shadow and US ATACMS, which can strike targets deep inside Russian territory.
While previous “red lines” set by Russia have been crossed without significant immediate escalation, analysts now caution that the UK could face a multifaceted response from Moscow, including sabotage, disinformation campaigns, and cyberattacks.
UK “Singled Out” for Response
Keir Giles, a Russian military expert at Chatham House, told i that the UK, having been one of the first nations to provide Ukraine with advanced military capabilities, could be singled out for retribution. Justin Crump, a former British Army officer and current chief executive of Sibylline consultancy, echoed this, noting that Britain often leads the way in supplying advanced weaponry, encouraging other European nations to follow suit.
“Russia will look for ways of targeting the UK in particular,” Giles warned.
Potential Forms of Sabotage
Experts predict an increase in sophisticated sabotage operations across Europe, potentially involving proxy actors such as organized crime groups. UK security services are already monitoring Russian-linked incidents. In August, a British man was arrested on charges of arson at a Ukrainian business in East London, allegedly under the direction of the Russian Wagner Group.
Similar cases of sabotage have been reported across Europe. Estonian and Lithuanian authorities have both revealed Russian efforts to recruit citizens for attacks on their own governments. Swedish officials are also investigating incidents involving Russian-linked railway derailments and drone activity near Stockholm’s Arlanda Airport.
Russia has been linked to more direct acts of sabotage, including a suspected attack on an underwater fiber-optic cable near Norway in January 2022, and two arrests in Germany in April for planning Russian-backed attacks aimed at disrupting logistical support for Ukraine.
Disinformation and Cyberattacks
In addition to physical sabotage, Russia is expected to ramp up disinformation efforts, particularly online. According to Crump, Russian intelligence often coordinates sabotage operations with disinformation campaigns to exacerbate divisions and fuel unrest in Western nations. A key focus of these efforts is likely to be migration, with Russia pushing narratives that sow distrust and political instability in Europe.
“Disinformation about migration is a pressure point they nudge along to create chaos,” Crump said.
Russia’s cyber capabilities are also a significant concern. In June, the UK’s cyber intelligence agency, GCHQ, raised alarms about the growing collaboration between Russian intelligence and proxy groups conducting cyberattacks on Western infrastructure. Russian-linked hackers have previously targeted UK public institutions, including an attack on the NHS, which caused significant disruption.
Military and Diplomatic Escalation
While sabotage and disinformation are likely to increase, experts caution that the Kremlin’s warnings about military escalation may not be as severe as they sound. Despite Putin’s threats, past warnings of retaliation following Western support for Ukraine’s military have not led to significant escalations.
Peter Caddick-Adams, a NATO historian and defense analyst, said that Putin’s recent statements should be viewed as part of a broader strategy to apply diplomatic pressure on Western nations.
“Putin is using rhetoric as a tool of verbal bullying, hoping to stall NATO countries from further arming Ukraine,” he explained.
Despite the threats, analysts remain skeptical that Russia will escalate the conflict to the point of direct military confrontation with NATO countries. Instead, experts believe Moscow will continue to rely on cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage as key tools in its asymmetric warfare strategy.
Increased Threat of Hybrid Warfare
As discussions over the use of long-range missile systems in Ukraine continue, the UK and other Western nations must brace for a rise in Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics. From coordinated sabotage operations to sophisticated disinformation campaigns, Moscow’s response is expected to be multifaceted and targeted. However, experts remain cautiously optimistic that overt military escalation remains unlikely, with Russia more likely to focus on covert and cyber strategies to destabilize its adversaries.