2024 US Presidential Polls Tracker: Trump vs Harris – The Latest Averages
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By Smartencyclopedia News Staff with Agencies

The 2024 US presidential race is heating up as Kamala Harris, now the Democratic nominee following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal in July, continues to hold a narrow lead over Republican challenger Donald Trump. According to The Guardian’s latest poll tracker, Harris has 49.3% of the national vote, compared to Trump’s 46%. With early voting already underway, the race remains highly competitive, especially in key battleground states.

Harris Holds Slim National Lead

The Guardian’s polling analysis, based on an average of high-quality national and state-level polls, shows Harris retaining a slim lead. As of Friday, over 1.4 million Americans had already cast their votes, reflecting the growing intensity of the race as both candidates vie for the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

Despite Harris’s national lead, the margin is razor-thin, with recent polling indicating that the race is effectively a toss-up. According to 538, Harris holds a 55% chance of winning the presidency, while Trump’s chances stand at 45%. These numbers underscore the high stakes and uncertainty as Election Day approaches.

Battleground States: The Key to Victory

As always, battleground states will play a decisive role in determining the next president. The Guardian’s tracker highlights Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as the critical states to watch. Harris holds narrow leads in all three, but analysts caution that her advantage is not substantial enough to guarantee victory.

  • Pennsylvania: Harris leads Trump by 1.2 points.
  • Michigan: The race is nearly tied, with Harris leading by just 0.1 points.
  • Wisconsin: Harris has a slightly stronger lead, up by 2.2 points.

Nate Cohn of The New York Times recently noted that Pennsylvania, which has been particularly volatile, is now essentially tied. While Harris had a 2-point lead following the September debate, Trump has since closed the gap, making the outcome unpredictable.

The race is similarly close in Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, where both candidates are locked in tight battles. In Arizona, Trump holds a slight edge with 48.8% of the vote to Harris’s 48%. Trump’s success in the state is partly attributed to his surprising strength among Hispanic voters, a demographic where he has gained ground since 2020.

Trump’s Gains Among Hispanic Voters

Trump’s improved performance among Hispanic voters is one of the most notable trends of the 2024 election. Four years ago, Joe Biden won Arizona by carrying Latino voters by nearly 25 points. However, recent polls show Harris leading Trump by just 12 points among Hispanics, a much narrower margin than Biden’s in 2020.

Nationally, an NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll found Harris leading among Hispanic voters 54% to 40%, a notable drop from Biden’s 59% in 2020. Trump’s resilience among Hispanic voters, particularly non-college-educated ones, reflects a broader shift within this demographic. Pew’s analysis from 2020 indicated that Biden won college-educated Hispanic voters by a wide margin (69%-30%), but among non-college-educated Hispanics, the margin was much closer (55%-41%).

This growing support for Trump among certain segments of the Hispanic population could play a crucial role in swing states like Arizona, Florida, and Nevada, where the Latino vote is pivotal.

Voter Perception: A Shift in Harris’s Favor

In a significant shift, more voters now believe Harris will win the election. According to a Cook Political Report analysis, 46% of voters think Harris is likely to win, compared to 39% for Trump. This represents an 11-point swing in Harris’s favor since August, reflecting her success in positioning herself as a serious candidate.

The vice-presidential debate on October 1, between Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Walz, may also influence public perception in the coming days. While the debate didn’t produce major shakeups in the polls, the candidates’ performances could sway undecided voters.

Economic Issues at the Forefront

The economy remains a central issue in the race. While Trump continues to lead among voters who believe he is better equipped to handle economic issues, particularly job creation and growth, Harris has made gains on the issue of inflation. Voters are now evenly split on which candidate would be better suited to tackle inflation, a shift from earlier in the year when Trump held a 6-point lead on the issue.

This change may indicate that Harris’s messaging on the economy is resonating with voters, while Trump’s efforts to link Harris to rising costs have not been as effective.

Conclusion: A Nail-Biting Finish

As the 2024 presidential election nears its final stretch, the race remains highly competitive. While Harris holds a slight lead nationally and in several key states, Trump’s strong performance among Hispanic voters and in battleground states like Arizona keeps him firmly in the race. With millions of Americans already voting and key debates yet to fully impact the polls, the election’s outcome remains anything but certain. All eyes will be on the final days of campaigning as both candidates fight for the presidency in one of the closest races in recent memory.

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