The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, arrives in Budapest for the EPC summit on Thursday. Photograph: Dénes Erdős/AP

By Smartencyclopedia with Agencies

Budapest, Hungary – The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has stirred concerns and strategic recalculations among European leaders gathering in Budapest. This Hungarian summit, part of the European Political Community’s discussions, offers an opportune setting for Europe’s leaders to examine what a second Trump administration might mean for transatlantic relations, European security, and the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

A Troubled Legacy

During Trump’s first term, his “America First” policy placed a strain on US-European relations. Trump frequently criticized NATO allies, asserting they contributed too little to their defense. In addition, Trump’s hardline stance on trade deficits, especially with Germany, placed significant strain on diplomatic ties with European powerhouse Angela Merkel and others. European leaders now face the challenge of adjusting to Trump’s return while holding steadfast to their commitments on security and economic cooperation.

Concerns Over Ukraine

Of particular urgency is the question of Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, is present at the summit, hoping to secure continued European support amid fears that the new Trump administration might curtail or even halt US military aid to Ukraine. Under Trump’s prior presidency, he claimed he could resolve the Ukraine crisis “within a day,” though his stance on Ukraine’s victory remains ambiguous. European leaders have pledged to stand by Ukraine, but with the US as Ukraine’s largest donor, any shift in American support could strain Europe’s ability to compensate.

Adding to the complexity is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, an outspoken Trump supporter and vocal advocate for easing tensions with Russia. Orbán’s reluctance to impose sanctions on Russia or provide Ukraine with military aid has set him at odds with other EU leaders. His calls for an “immediate ceasefire” diverge sharply from the prevailing Western stance that Ukraine should have control over its terms for peace.

European Unity Under Pressure

While EU leaders are striving for a united response, the specter of division looms. Leaders like Orbán, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, and Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni are known Trump supporters. Their alignment with Trump could disrupt the bloc’s cohesion, potentially prompting other nations to prioritize bilateral relations with the US. An EU diplomat, however, suggested that Trump’s presidency could also catalyze European unity, much like the Brexit aftermath drove the EU closer together.

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have reaffirmed their support for Ukraine, yet they face significant challenges. Germany’s coalition government recently collapsed, casting doubt on its future as Ukraine’s second-largest supporter. This political instability, coupled with the US’s shifting stance, has raised concerns about Europe’s ability to sustain Ukraine without American support.

A Revival of Trade Tensions?

Europe also faces the potential for renewed trade frictions. Trump’s protectionist policies, including his willingness to impose tariffs on imports, risk dampening Europe’s already struggling economies. Germany, with its heavily export-oriented economy and vulnerable automotive sector, stands particularly exposed. European Commission officials are preparing contingency measures in case of a trade conflict, but leaders hope to avoid escalating tensions.

Transatlantic Security Concerns

Trump’s well-documented skepticism toward NATO is at the core of Europe’s apprehensions. Trump has repeatedly questioned the alliance’s relevance and criticized European members for insufficient defense spending. The idea of diminished American commitment is deeply unsettling for Europe, which has relied on NATO since the end of World War II. Trump’s return amplifies fears that the US may retreat from its historic security role, leaving Europe exposed to Russian aggression and other security challenges.

The Rise of Populism in Europe

Some European politicians fear that Trump’s victory could embolden right-wing populists across the continent. Leaders who echo Trump’s views on nationalism, economic protectionism, and immigration could gain momentum, fueling populist movements that see themselves as the “true voice” of voters dissatisfied with the status quo.

A Call for European Self-Reliance

In the days before the US election, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasized that Europe must prioritize its own security and future, suggesting that the continent should not be overly reliant on the US. The recent political shift in Washington underscores a pressing need for Europe to develop more autonomous strategies to handle crises and protect its interests.

Looking Ahead

European leaders, facing a complex and uncertain future, are exploring ways to navigate Trump’s return. While some leaders are hopeful that his presidency could unify Europe, others worry that the continent’s reliance on American support has made it vulnerable. As Europe gathers in Budapest, the stakes could not be higher: the continent’s security, stability, and unity are all in question, and leaders are bracing for the challenges a new Trump era may bring.