By Smartencyclopedia Newsdesk with Agencies

A significant military offensive has reignited the long-dormant flames of Syria’s brutal conflict. Rebel forces, led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have launched their most substantial operation against the Assad regime in years, capturing large portions of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. This offensive has shaken the uneasy status quo in a nation fractured by over a decade of civil war and drawn renewed global attention to the complex dynamics of the Syrian battlefield.

The Surprise Offensive on Aleppo

Beginning on Wednesday, the rebel-led assault rapidly overwhelmed Syrian government forces, culminating in the withdrawal of Assad’s troops from parts of Aleppo by Saturday. HTS and its allies seized strategic areas and consolidated control over large sections of the city. The attack marked the first major shift in Aleppo since 2016, prompting Russia, a staunch ally of Assad, to resume airstrikes on the city for the first time in seven years.

In a region characterized by relative stalemates in recent years, the sudden and coordinated nature of the assault has left analysts questioning the motivations and objectives of the rebel coalition.

Who Is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)?

HTS is a rebranded Islamist militant group that has dominated the Idlib region in northwest Syria. Its origins trace back to the early days of the Syrian uprising when it was known as Jabhat al-Nusra, an official affiliate of Al Qaeda. The group’s early operations were marked by fierce opposition to Assad’s regime and jihadist ideology, distinguishing it from more secular factions under the Free Syrian Army banner.

In 2016, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani publicly severed ties with Al Qaeda, a move designed to distance the group from global terrorism networks and align its ambitions with local governance in Syria. Following this shift, HTS absorbed smaller factions and adopted its current name in 2017. Today, HTS presents itself as a force focused on establishing a fundamentalist Islamic state within Syria rather than pursuing Al Qaeda’s broader global jihadist goals.

Life in Idlib: HTS’s Stronghold

HTS has controlled Idlib province, a rebel stronghold housing approximately four million people, many of whom are internally displaced. Under HTS, Idlib operates as a quasi-independent entity with its own administrative systems, though reports of human rights abuses, infighting, and authoritarian rule have tarnished its reputation.

The Broader Dynamics of Control in Syria

For much of the past four years, President Bashar al-Assad’s government has maintained firm control over Syria’s major cities, with limited exceptions:

Kurdish-Controlled Areas: The Kurdish-majority regions in the northeast have operated autonomously since the early years of the conflict.

IS Remnants: The vast Syrian desert continues to harbor pockets of Islamic State fighters who remain a sporadic but persistent threat.

Southern Unrest: Low-level unrest endures in the south, where the revolution first ignited in 2011.
Idlib: The northwestern province remains the last significant opposition-held territory, dominated by HTS and other rebel groups.

The 2020 Russian-Turkish ceasefire temporarily quelled fighting in Idlib, allowing displaced civilians to resettle and reducing large-scale hostilities. However, the recent offensive against Aleppo signals a potential collapse of this fragile truce.

Why Now? The Context Behind the Offensive

The timing of the Aleppo operation raises critical questions about HTS’s strategic calculus. Several factors may have influenced its decision to act:

Regional Instabilities: The ongoing Israeli military campaign in Lebanon has significantly weakened Hezbollah, one of Assad’s key allies. Simultaneously, Israeli airstrikes have targeted Iranian military figures and assets in Syria, further disrupting Assad’s support network.

Russian Distractions: Russia, Assad’s primary backer, has focused much of its military capacity on the war in Ukraine. This shift has diminished its ability to project power in Syria, leaving Assad’s forces vulnerable to coordinated rebel attacks.

Internal Consolidation: Despite years of bitter infighting, HTS appears to have consolidated its control over Idlib. The group may see the Aleppo offensive as a way to reassert its dominance and legitimacy among Syria’s fragmented opposition.

Surprise Factor: By launching an unexpected large-scale operation, HTS likely aimed to exploit weaknesses in the Syrian military, which had not faced such an assault in years.

The Implications of HTS’s Aleppo Offensive

The resurgence of HTS and the rapid fall of Aleppo to opposition forces carry profound implications for the Syrian conflict and the broader region:

Renewed Conflict: The offensive risks reigniting large-scale violence in Syria, undermining the relative calm established by the 2020 ceasefire.

Humanitarian Crisis: The United Nations has already reported that approximately 10,000 civilians have fled the Aleppo area. Displacement, coupled with intensified fighting, threatens to worsen the dire humanitarian situation in Idlib and surrounding regions.

Geopolitical Fallout: The attack may further strain Assad’s alliances with Russia and Iran, whose diminished support capabilities have left him vulnerable. Conversely, Turkey, which has backed rebel groups, may find its role in Syria scrutinized by international powers.

What Lies Ahead?

HTS’s offensive in Aleppo marks a pivotal moment in the Syrian civil war, signaling the possibility of a renewed phase of open conflict. While the group’s long-term goals remain unclear, its ability to launch such a decisive operation demonstrates its enduring strength and the fragile nature of Assad’s hold on power.

The international community now faces a dilemma: how to address the escalating violence while navigating the complex web of alliances and rivalries that define Syria’s battlefield. Without concerted diplomatic efforts and humanitarian aid, the recent gains by HTS could plunge Syria into another cycle of devastation.