Anti-Regime Forces Capture Hama in Major Blow to Assad’s Regime

Strategic City Falls After Intense Fighting

Hama, strategically located in central Syria, has long been a linchpin for Assad’s forces, protecting the capital Damascus. Its fall represents a severe setback for the regime. Anti-regime fighters encircled the city from three sides, leaving government forces with only one escape route toward Homs in the south, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Hours after the siege, Syrian regime forces confirmed Hama’s capture. “These groups were able to breach several axes and entered the city,” read a statement from the regime’s army, adding that remaining military units had redeployed outside the city.

Anti-regime forces also seized Hama’s central prison, reportedly liberating hundreds of inmates, according to Hassan Abdel Ghani, a leader in their military operations unit.

Aleppo’s Fall Signals Regime Vulnerabilities

The offensive began last week with the unexpected fall of Aleppo, Syria’s commercial hub, a city Assad’s forces fought fiercely to recapture during the height of the war between 2012 and 2016. Aleppo’s loss has dealt a blow to Assad’s legitimacy, emboldening his opponents and underscoring the fragility of his rule.

The head of the anti-regime group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, celebrated the victory in Aleppo by visiting its iconic citadel, a symbolic gesture that underlined the significance of the city’s capture.

Human Toll and Displacement

The rapid advance has come at a high cost. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported 704 deaths, including 110 civilians, since the offensive began. The United Nations estimates that 115,000 people have been displaced across Idlib and northern Aleppo, fleeing the violence.

Residents of Hama described the ordeal as terrifying. “The bombing hasn’t stopped,” said Wassim, a 36-year-old delivery driver. “I’ll stay home because I have nowhere else to flee to.”

Assad Under Pressure

Bashar Assad’s regime, already weakened by years of war, sanctions, and economic decline, faces mounting challenges. The rapid loss of Aleppo and Hama highlights long-standing vulnerabilities within the Syrian army, including low morale, depleted resources, and waning support from foreign backers like Russia and Iran.

Analysts point to the regime’s reliance on poorly paid and equipped soldiers, many of whom have abandoned their posts. Aymenn al-Tamimi, a Middle East researcher, noted that the complacency of Assad’s forces, partly driven by a belief in a lasting cease-fire, contributed to the swift losses.

In a bid to bolster morale, Assad announced a 50% pay raise for career soldiers, but experts doubt this will be enough to reverse the tide.

International Implications and U.N. Mediation Efforts

The resurgence of intense fighting has caught international policymakers off guard. “Many thought Assad had won and the conflict was over,” said Rim Turkmani of the London School of Economics. “But the absence of violence does not mean the conflict is resolved.”

The United Nations is urging de-escalation. U.N. Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen is actively engaging with Syrian and international actors to reduce tensions and prevent further bloodshed. “It is urgent to protect civilians and prevent further escalation,” said U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric.

Uncertain Future

While the anti-regime forces’ victories are significant, holding and governing the newly captured territories will prove challenging. Analysts warn that their rapid expansion may outpace their capacity to maintain control and establish governance structures.

For Assad, the stakes are existential. With his foreign allies preoccupied—Russia in Ukraine and Iran facing regional challenges—his ability to mount a sustained counteroffensive remains uncertain.

As Syria plunges deeper into turmoil, the consequences of this latest escalation are likely to reverberate beyond its borders, reigniting international focus on a conflict many had assumed was winding down.

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