By Smartencyclopedia with Agencies
TARTUS, SYRIA – The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has thrown Russia’s long-term military ambitions in Syria into jeopardy as armed opposition forces push into the strategic port city of Tartus. This development comes after rebels seized Damascus, marking a dramatic turning point in Syria’s decade-long civil war.
The city of Tartus, home to Russia’s only naval base in the Mediterranean, now faces a precarious situation. According to Russian state media, opposition groups have reportedly entered parts of the city, though they have not directly attacked the Russian naval facility. However, concerns about the base’s security and the broader implications for Moscow’s presence in Syria are escalating.
A Strategic Setback for Russia
Under a 2019 agreement between Moscow and Assad’s government, Russia was granted rights to operate the Tartus base until 2066. This base, alongside the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia, has been central to Russia’s military operations in Syria and its broader influence in the region.
Now, with Assad’s government dismantled, the agreement is effectively nullified. Former Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, who remained in Damascus to coordinate the power transition, stated that the new authorities will decide the future of Russian bases. He also called for free elections, signaling a potential shift in Syria’s geopolitical alliances.
Russian Defense Ministry officials insist that their bases remain in “a state of heightened combat readiness.” However, independent analysts and Russian war bloggers question the viability of maintaining these facilities amid the chaos.
Signs of Withdrawal?
Adding to the uncertainty, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (GUR) has reported signs of a Russian withdrawal. Ships have reportedly been moved out of Tartus, and airlifts from Khmeimim are underway, suggesting that Moscow is preemptively scaling back its military footprint.
Al Jazeera also reported that Russian propagandists are downplaying the threat to Tartus, but the rapid advance of opposition forces raises doubts about Moscow’s ability to sustain operations in Syria without Assad’s cooperation.
Rebel Coalition’s Next Move
The rebel coalition, which includes groups aligned with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has yet to articulate its stance on foreign military bases. Leaders of the opposition have emphasized their focus on establishing a transitional governing body and rebuilding Syria. However, experts warn that foreign powers like Russia and Iran, which supported Assad, could face diminished influence or outright expulsion under the new regime.
Implications for the Region
The situation in Tartus underscores the broader geopolitical consequences of Assad’s downfall. Russia’s military presence in Syria has been a key pillar of its Middle East strategy, providing access to the Mediterranean and countering Western influence in the region.
“The collapse of Assad’s regime is a watershed moment,” said Dr. Leila Nasr, a Middle East analyst. “For Russia, losing Tartus would not only diminish its strategic reach but also signal a broader retreat from its ambitions in the region.”
Future of Syria
With Assad’s departure and Damascus under opposition control, the fate of Syria is uncertain. The transitional government faces the monumental task of reconciling fractured factions and rebuilding the war-torn nation. Meanwhile, global powers are recalibrating their strategies as the balance of power shifts in the Middle East.
As Tartus teeters on the edge of becoming a focal point for conflict or diplomacy, one thing is clear: the ripple effects of Assad’s downfall are just beginning to be felt.