By Alexander Turner*
The Middle East is once again thrust into heightened tensions as Iran launches a series of missile and drone attacks. In less than 24 hours, Iran targeted Mossad facilities in Erbil, Iraq, and Houthi rebels hit a Greek cargo ship in the Red Sea. This marks the first time Tehran has openly claimed responsibility, signaling a potential failure of U.S. deterrence and the risk of escalating the conflict to a global level.
Experts argue that Iran, with the backing of Russia, is shifting its approach, moving beyond proxy attacks by groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. The connection between the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine is emphasized, suggesting that Iran’s actions, supported by Russia, contribute to a broader global conflict.
In a departure from past behavior, Iran has launched at least two direct attacks on neighboring territories. The first, aimed at “Zionist regime spies [Israel]” in Iraq and ISIS targets in Syria, was followed by new strikes on Jaish al-Zalm terrorist group bases in southeastern Pakistan. Experts see this as a significant shift driven by Iran’s alliance with Russia.
Since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, Iran has positioned itself as a major Russian ally, supplying kamikaze drones like the Shahed-136 when Moscow faced ammunition shortages during the invasion’s early stages. Now, nearly two years into the war, Russia seeks to divert attention and military support away from Kyiv, potentially escalating the conflict across the entire Middle East.
“Iran feels more comfortable because it has a close ally in Russia. Moscow has a vested interest in escalating the conflict, albeit in a controlled manner, to redirect Western support from Ukraine to Israel. Russia does not want Iran to engage in a war against the United States, as they heavily depend on the Iranian military industry, a prime target for the Americans”.
Beyond military aspects, modern conflicts intertwine economic and diplomatic dimensions. The United States has formed a coalition to safeguard maritime trade routes in the Red Sea. Recent Houthi attacks, supported by Iran, on cargo ships heading to the Suez Canal triggered a U.S. response, with airstrikes targeting military sites in Yemen where the rebels operate.
While the U.S. aimed to diminish Houthi capabilities, experts argue the attack lacked a deterrent effect. The group resumed attacks on cargo ships, leading to a significant diversion of maritime traffic. This, coupled with the increasing preference for shipping companies to circumvent the region by traveling around the Cape of Good Hope, raises transportation costs and adds inflationary pressure to Western economies.
The financial burden of U.S. operations in response to Yemeni attacks is substantial, with the navy employing sophisticated anti-aircraft weapons costing over a million euros per unit. In contrast, Houthi rebels can inflict severe damage on vessels with relatively inexpensive means.
As the conflict intensifies, supported by Russia and tacit approval from China, these groups, including the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah, are more motivated than ever to defend their interests against the United States. The clash of civilizations and differing interpretations of international principles indicate a world becoming increasingly unstable.
*Alexander Turner’s contributions to Smartencyclopedia and look forward to his continued work in enlightening our readers on the ever-evolving landscape of diplomacy, geopolitics, international relations, and social sciences.